In May, the US Department of Agriculture predicted that Moscow would export “a record” 45 million metric tons of wheat in the 2022-23 season. Russia’s wheat exports are hitting all-time highs. Tensions between Ukraine and Poland have since eased. “Russia benefits from the potential disunity,” Welsh said, “and also from the drain on EU resources as the EU is … supporting alternative routes. When the EU refused to extend the curbs, several of the countries issued unilateral import bans, something that escalated into a rare episode of public mudslinging between Ukraine and staunch ally Poland. This, in turn, threatened the livelihoods of local farmers. Those nations, including Poland, feared they would otherwise be inundated with Ukrainian grain as more of it would now be exported over land to Ukraine’s neighbors and near-neighbors and - as happened before the EU blocked the shipments - some of the grain meant to be in transit could end up being sold in those countries. Three days after Russia’s departure, which caused the agreement to fall apart, five European Union countries on or near Ukraine’s border wrote to the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, asking it to extend a temporary ban on the imports of Ukrainian grain into those countries till the end of the year. Moscow’s pullout from the grain deal also presented a major new test to Europe’s united front in supporting Ukraine. “Russia wants to get some good press, but volumes are extremely small,” he told CNN.įarmers harvest wheat in the settlement of Nedvigovka in southern Russia in July. The latter amount to 8 million tons a month, he estimates. He points out that the 300,000 metric tons of grain Russia pledged at the end of July as aid to a handful of African countries is a tiny fraction of both Russia’s monthly exports and Africa’s needs. It’s more about PR than genuine generosity, though, according to Andrey Sizov, who runs SovEcon, a consultancy for the wheat and corn industries. The “free aid to needy countries” highlighted by Putin, they say, reflects Moscow’s desire to continue cultivating alliances with the developing world - especially with African nations, many of which have so far refused to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine but disapproved of its decision to pull out of the grain deal. Yet experts say there is more to Russia’s actions than waging economic warfare on its neighbor. Brink, the US ambassador to Ukraine, wrote Monday on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Ukraine’s exports are vital to its economy and to feed the world,” Bridget A. Before the invasion, the sector accounted for 11% of the country’s gross domestic product. “They are aiming to completely wipe out Ukraine’s agriculture sector,” Caitlin Welsh, director of the global food and water security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNN.ĭoing so would be a big prize for Moscow, given the importance of agriculture to Ukraine’s economy. The attacks have damaged grain silos and infrastructure both at Ukraine’s sea ports and its Danube river ports, which provide an important alternative route for exports and serve no military purpose. Since the deal’s collapse, Moscow has stepped up military attacks on Ukraine’s export facilities. Those comments came just a few weeks after Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had ensured the safe passage of ships carrying grain from Ukrainian ports. “Our country has the capacity to replace Ukrainian grain, both commercially and as free aid to needy countries,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the summit of the BRICS group of developing nations in late August. Moscow’s words and actions suggest a determination to strip Ukraine of its position as one of the world’s top wheat exporters, constraining its economy and, by extension, its war-fighting potential. In the same period, Ukraine’s share of global wheat exports has shrunk from 9% to an expected level of a little over 6% for this season. Two years ago, Russia exported 32.6 million tons, 16% of the market. This will amount to 22.5% of global wheat exports, a market-leading share. It is expected to export 47.2 million metric tons (52 million tons) of wheat in the current season, which started in the summer, according to data from S&P Global shared with CNN. Russia is expected to rake in a historically high wheat harvest for the second year in a row and is increasingly using that bounty to undermine Ukraine and gain global influence.ĭespite Moscow’s claims that Western sanctions have put a stranglehold on its food exports, Russia’s share of the global wheat market has grown dramatically since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In April 2022, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said on his Telegram channel: “Our food is our silent weapon.
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